The NBA regular season wrapped up Sunday night with a 15-game slate. Twelve teams advanced to the NBA playoffs, earning the luxury to rest this week while eight others will compete as part of the play-in tournament for the final four spots. Bettors are more than happy to move past the lineup variance that has tortured us throughout the season and focus on handicapping the best versions of each team.
The market has continued to show confidence that the Nets will be able to make a run at the NBA title despite having to earn it the hard way. Brooklyn has the third-best odds at +700. With a win against Cleveland, the Nets secured the seventh seed and draw Boston in the first round of the playoffs if they advance. The Celtics have been the most dominant team in the league since the All-Star break, posting a 17-5 record. The first real test for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is Tuesday night, as they take on Cleveland as an 8.5-point home favorite. I'm not interested in laying a big number with the third-worst team ATS this year, but I still found a solid way to bet the game. Plus, I took a shot at which two teams will survive the play-in tournament so I can extract some value out of a Nets win.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets (Under 229.5)
Brooklyn is a very high-profile team that commands a lot of respect in the market. Sometimes too much respect. When you look at how the Nets have performed all season, they are 28th ATS and 41-41 to the total. The Nets' biggest concern has been their defense, and I am not sure the Cavaliers have the scorers to take full advantage.
In Brooklyn's 118-107 win over Cleveland on Friday night, the Cavs shot 29% from 3-point range and were beaten on the glass by a very wide margin (45-31). The game fell under the closing total of 232.5. It was the fifth consecutive under for Brooklyn. Despite its prolific offense, led by Durant and Irving, the Nets are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games.
In a playoff atmosphere, possessions are more critical, and teams rely more on their half-court offense. We typically see both sides slow down, especially late in the game. Brooklyn was 7-4-1 to the under in last year's postseason, and the Cavs need that type of game to have a fighting chance. All signs are pointing in the same direction, so I grabbed the under this morning before the market pushed it down any lower.
Eastern Conference qualifiers: Nets and Hawks (+240)
We can all agree that the Nets are very likely to qualify for either the seventh or eighth seed. The risk is finding the other team that will play its way into the postseason. Getting the Hawks here at +240 is a decent enough price to lure me into the action. Atlanta has been playing its best basketball at just the right time. Last year's Cinderella story fell short in the Eastern Conference finals, and it looks like Trae Young is gearing up for another run. The Hawks finished the regular season on a 7-3 run S/U and ATS. They start the play-in tournament as 4.5-point favorites against the Hornets.
In the last 10 games, Atlanta's 121 points per 100 possessions rank second in the league. Only Boston has been better. The Hawks' defense, which has plagued them all season, ranks 13th during that same span. Neither Cleveland nor Charlotte is inside the top 20. The Hawks are playing better on both ends of the floor compared to their two potential opponents, who are both very young teams. Hawks coach Nate McMillan can tap into the valuable experience of winning consecutive playoff series and battling the defending champion Bucks for six games. At +240, I will take my chances they can win consecutive games against the Hornets and Cavs.
Fuente: Sports.yahooo.com
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